The Biggest Question in Baseball

Will the Cubs Win the World Series?

By: Dhan P.

The Chicago Cubs have had a historic season this year. They have began to shatter the curse that has plagued the team since 1908. This year is the first time since 1945 that they’ve made it to the World Series. They are narrowly favoured to win, but the big question remains. Will Chicago beat Cleveland?

The Chicago Cubs have had an excellent team. Their team rating has been above the others in baseball for almost the entire season. In fact, they have been favourites to win for almost all season. Cleveland has also had a great team, defeating Toronto in an upset 3-1 series victory.  So, we know that they’re both good teams. But who will win?

To find the answer, we look to Elo ratings. In Elo, if a team wins, they gain points from the loser. The bigger the victory, or if it is an underdog upset, the greater the point transfer. This system tends to self correct over time, so it is as good as any to predict the future. It is commonly used in games like chess to rate players, but it will serve just as well in baseball.

The Cubs celebrate after defeating the LA Dodgers. But will they be able to celebrate again? (Washington Post)

As of Monday, October 25th, Chicago is rated at 1589, and Cleveland is rated at 1556. This gives the Cubs a 63% chance of shattering the bad luck that has plagued them since 1908. However, the Cubs have been known to blow their biggest opportunities, so you might not want to bet any cash on them just yet.  Hardcore Cubs fans may want to get their hopes up, however. Most of the World Series games favour the Cubs by about 60%, so even if they blow one or two opportunities, there is still plenty of time to catch up. And their odds of winning overall range from 60-75%. The Cubs haven’t let their fans down yet majorly this season, and there is no large reason to believe that they will disappoint.

With game one on the books as a massive defeat for the Cubs, one could argue that Cleveland will dominate the rest of the series. However, that doesn’t take into account that in the next few games, Chicago will have a home field advantage, as well as knowledge about how Cleveland plans to play. Game two exemplified this, as Chicago put on a good performance, showing that they can beat Cleveland on their own turf. Winning the next few games may not be easy, but it is more than doable. Will Chicago pull it off? Only time will tell.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s