The US election is fast approaching and with the already floundering economy one has got to wonder how the November 8th election might affect Canada and its economy. Both politicians could affect us greatly, but which one would be the worst for Canadian business?
Donald Trump is the Republican candidate for the election and his campaign and many people disagree with him, but what if many are not the majority? If Trump was elected then he promises that he will renegotiate the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA), withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and end the age of easy border crossing. But Trump does support the Keystone XL pipeline, which would be good for the oil sands. John Ibbitson, a writer for the Globe and Mail, predicts that even with that a world under Trump presidential rule the pipeline would be: “But cold comfort in a world reeling from the chaos.”
Hillary Clinton is the Democratic candidate and another choice in the election, however some would say not a very good one. Unlike Trump, Clinton supports both the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the North American Free-Trade Agreement, but said that she does want to renegotiate it, just like Trump. It has been proven in the past that Democratic Presidents are better for faster growing economies in Canada, with a +3% GDP growth rather than a -3% GDP growth from a Republican president, but statistics are not always the same as reality.
To fully understand how the election will affect Canada you must first understand how the trade deals affect us now. The Trans-Pacific Partnership allows Canada a long-term GDP gain of 4.3 billion dollars Canadian, but not everything about it is good, it would take away from local industry and many jobs would be lost. However if Canada did not join the TPP we would have faced an estimated $5.3 billion Net GDP loss. The North American Free-Trade Agreement is an agreement between Canada, Mexico and the USA and its members economies make $20.8 trillion. But the NAFTA caused many people to lose their jobs, including Mexican farmers and USA manufacturing workers. Keystone XL Pipeline was a proposed 1,897km pipeline, but was rejected by President Obama in 2015. Trump wants to approve it and if he did it would provide some more jobs, but at a cost to the environment.
Overall it seems that Hillary Clinton would be the best presidential candidate for Canada’s economy, but maybe that would not be the case, we might just have to wait for the election to truly find out.